[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 October 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 16 10:25:15 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z OCTOBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 OCTOBER - 18 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Oct: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Oct 17 Oct 18 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar wind speed Vsw picked up from 300km/sec at 05UT
to 450km/sec by 16UT and has remained there. This was accompanied
by increases in solar wind density and temperature. This unexpected
rise is possibly due to a corotating interaction region (CIR)
ahead of either, the very weak coronal hole now near the cente
of the disc in the southern hemisphere, or the stronger extension
of the polar coronal hole that is visible now in STEREO-B images
and approaching the limb. An IMF sector boundary crossing is
expected in the next day or two, probably related to this event.
IMF Bz was mostly north or weakly south apart from a -5nT southward
excursion 15-17UT which was geoeffective (see geomagnetic). The
solar disc continues to remain spotless although an active region
is in transit mid-eastern limb in the SOHO spacecraft EIT imagery.
Magnetograms still indicate simple bipolar magnetic configuration
so flaring likelihood is low. No type II/III radio events from
this region were observed by Learmonth observatory and the ARBIS
software. Solar activity is expected to stay at very low levels
for the next three days. STEREO-B shows the returning AR1027
at 24N, due to return on the 15th and just becoming visible on
the limb in SOHO EIT images.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 11222122
Darwin 5 11222122
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 5 11222221
Canberra 3 01221021
Hobart 6 11322121
Casey(Ant) 10 32322232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Oct :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 2 0000 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Oct 5 Quiet
17 Oct 3 Quiet
18 Oct 2 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet at mid to low-latitudes
despite the rise in Vsw to 450km/sec (see solar) at 16UT. Possible
Unsettled conditions expected in the next 24 hours due to elevated
Vsw. Polar conditions were mostly Unsettled with a brief high
K at 19UT near the auroral oval from the IMF Bz southward excursion
15-17UT. A weak coronal hole in the southern hemisphere will
be in geoeffective position in one day although the current Vsw
increase from the leading CIR may be it's main effect. STEREO-B
shows another thin vertical coronal hole, an extension of the
northern polar crown, approacing the limb, about 3-4 days from
geoeffective position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Oct -8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island/Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Oct -2 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
17 Oct -2 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
18 Oct -3 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: HF frequencies are expected to remain mostly at normal
to reduced levels during daytime across Aus/NZ for the next 3
days with greated reductions in the north. Near-Equatorial regions
show higher variability than mid-latitudes. Lack of significant
magnetic activity indicates much of the low and mid latitude
variability from monthly medians is being driven by neutral winds.
Slightly enhanced geomagnetic activity in the day from increased
Vsw may lift ionisation and frequencies. Similarly in 4-5 days
when a coronal hole will probably take effect.effect. Extensive
strong Es was observed across the region at Nuie 04-05UT, Learmonth
12-13UT, Darwin 1230-14UT, Townsville 03-05UT, Brisbane 14-18UT,
Norfolk Is 10-12UT, Hobart 17-21UT.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Oct
Speed: 353 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 36000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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