[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 October 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 15 10:13:47 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z OCTOBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 OCTOBER - 17 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Oct: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Oct 16 Oct 17 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar wind speed Vsw was at nominal and declining
360-300km/sec and expected to remain in this range for at least three days.
IMF Bz was mostly northward shutting off merging with the geomagnetic
field. The solar disc continues to remain spotless although the
un-numbered region is in third day of transit on the eastern
limb in the SOHO spacecraft EIT imagery. Magnetograms indicate
simple bipolar magnetic configuration at this stage so flaring
likelihood should be low. A type III radio event was observed
by Learmonth observatory and the ARBIS software. Solar activity
is expected to stay at very low levels for the next three days.
STEREO-B shows an extension of the northern polar coronal hole
that may enhance solar wind speed in a weeks time, and the returning
AR1027 at 24N, due to return on the 15th.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 11111011
Darwin 2 11010002
Townsville 5 12221112
Learmonth 2 21010001
Canberra 1 10000011
Hobart 2 11111011
Casey(Ant) 6 23311111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0011 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Oct 3 Quiet
16 Oct 3 Quiet
17 Oct 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet at mid to low-latitudes
and Quiet to Unsettled due to low Vsw and IMF Bz northward
orientation.
Quiet conditions may be expected at mid and equatorial latitudes
for the next 3 days unless a prolonged (> 12 hrs) IMF Bz southward
period occurs. A weak coronal hole in the southern hemisphere
will be in geoeffective position in 1-2 days and may slightly
raise Vsw and geomagnetic activity. STEREO-B shows another thin
vertical coronal hole, an extension of the northern polar crown,
about 4-5 days from geoeffective position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Oct -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island/Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Oct -2 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
16 Oct -2 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
17 Oct -2 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: HF frequencies are expected to remain mostly at normal
to slightly reduced levels during daytime across Aus/NZ for the
next 3 days with possible nighttime enhancements. Blanketing
Es was observed at Townsville 05-09UT (day) and lesser Es at
Cocos Is 18-20UT (night), Nuie 06-07UT (afternoon), Darwin 11-12UT
(afternoon) and Brisbane 12-14UT (night). Near-Equatorial regions
show higher variability than mid-latitudes due to the equatorial
fountain. Lack of magnetic activity indicates much of the low
and mid latitude variability from monthly medians is being driven
by neutral winds. No significant geomagnetic activity that would
lift ionisation and frequencies expected for 4-5 days when a
coronal hole will probably take effect.effect.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Oct
Speed: 358 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 55400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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