[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 October 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 17 10:41:34 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z OCTOBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 OCTOBER - 19 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Oct: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Oct 18 Oct 19 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Ace space craft showed the solar wind speed to range
from 440 to 350 km/s over the last 24 hours and is presently
at 350 km/s. The solar wind is expected to decrease to just over
300 km/s during the nest 24 hours. The solar disc remains spotless
at this time although an active region is approaching the central
meridian at S30 as displayed on the SOHO spacecraft EIT imagery.
Magnetograms still indicate simple bipolar magnetic configuration
and flaring likelihood remains very low. Solar activity is expected
to stay at very low levels for the next three days. The return
AR1027 at 24N, is just becoming visible on the east limb in SOHO
EIT images.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 22111111
Darwin 2 21110001
Townsville 5 32211111
Learmonth 2 21101101
Canberra 1 12000000
Hobart 4 22111111
Casey(Ant) 4 ---21112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 0020 2121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Oct 2 Quiet
18 Oct 4 Quiet
19 Oct 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet at mid to low-latitudes
and quiet to unsettled at high latitudes. Expect quiet conditions
to prevail over the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Oct -13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island/Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Oct -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
18 Oct -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
19 Oct -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: HF frequencies are expected to remain mostly near monthly
predicted levels with slight depressions at low to mid latitudes
due to minimal solar activity during the next three days. Sporadic
E noted in the Australian Region, particularly during local night
time hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Oct
Speed: 398 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 45600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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