[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 October 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 17 10:41:34 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z OCTOBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 OCTOBER - 19 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Oct:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Oct             18 Oct             19 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Ace space craft showed the solar wind speed to range 
from 440 to 350 km/s over the last 24 hours and is presently 
at 350 km/s. The solar wind is expected to decrease to just over 
300 km/s during the nest 24 hours. The solar disc remains spotless 
at this time although an active region is approaching the central 
meridian at S30 as displayed on the SOHO spacecraft EIT imagery. 
Magnetograms still indicate simple bipolar magnetic configuration 
and flaring likelihood remains very low. Solar activity is expected 
to stay at very low levels for the next three days. The return 
AR1027 at 24N, is just becoming visible on the east limb in SOHO 
EIT images. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 16 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22111111
      Darwin               2   21110001
      Townsville           5   32211111
      Learmonth            2   21101101
      Canberra             1   12000000
      Hobart               4   22111111
      Casey(Ant)           4   ---21112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   0020 2121     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Oct     2    Quiet 
18 Oct     4    Quiet 
19 Oct     6    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet at mid to low-latitudes 
and quiet to unsettled at high latitudes. Expect quiet conditions 
to prevail over the next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
16 Oct   -13

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island/Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:   1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Oct    -5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
18 Oct    -5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
19 Oct    -5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 

COMMENT: HF frequencies are expected to remain mostly near monthly 
predicted levels with slight depressions at low to mid latitudes 
due to minimal solar activity during the next three days. Sporadic 
E noted in the Australian Region, particularly during local night 
time hours. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+04   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Oct
Speed: 398 km/sec  Density:    6.0 p/cc  Temp:    45600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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