[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 October 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 6 10:27:03 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z OCTOBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 OCTOBER - 08 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Oct: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Oct 07 Oct 08 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low over the last 24
hours. The solar wind speed gradually decreased from 400 km/s
to nearly 360 km/s over this period. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field showed flucuations between +/- 2nT
for most parts of the UT day on 05 October. Solar activity is
expected to stay at very low levels for the next 3 days. The
solar disc is spotless.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 22111211
Darwin 2 11000202
Townsville 6 22211222
Learmonth 3 22000201
Canberra 1 01000101
Hobart 3 11111111
Casey(Ant) 8 33311211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Oct :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1211 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Oct 2 Quiet
07 Oct 2 Quiet
08 Oct 2 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions remained at quiet levels on
05 October. Similar conditions may be expected for the next
3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions remained mostly normal on 05 October
with isolated periods of depressions in MUFs on all latitudes.
HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal on most
locations for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Oct -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of minor to moderate degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Oct 1 near predicted monthly values
07 Oct 1 near predicted monthly values
08 Oct 1 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Normal ionospheric support expected for all regions
over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Oct
Speed: 373 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 63900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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