[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 October 09

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z OCTOBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 OCTOBER - 07 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Oct:  71/6

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Oct             06 Oct             07 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               69/3               69/3

COMMENT: The solar wind speed ranged from 300 to 410 km/s and 
is expected to remain in this range for the next three days. 
A weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 0308UT on 04 Oct. 
The solar disc is spotless at this time.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 04 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   13132112
      Darwin               7   13132112
      Townsville           8   23232122
      Learmonth            6   13132201
      Canberra             5   03132001
      Hobart               6   13131112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Oct : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1   0000 1001     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Oct     2    Quiet 
06 Oct     2    Quiet 
07 Oct     2    Quiet 

COMMENT: Due to an increase in the solar wind speed there was 
quiet to unsettled conditions in the Australian region and quiet 
to active conditions in the Antarctic region. Expect quiet conditions 
for the next three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
04 Oct    -6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 10% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:   1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Oct     1    near predicted monthly values 
06 Oct     1    near predicted monthly values 
07 Oct     1    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Normal ionospheric support expected for all regions 
over the next 24 hours with a possibilty of slight depressions 
in the equitorial and north Australian regions. Similar conditions 
expected for the next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+04   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Oct
Speed: 319 km/sec  Density:    0.3 p/cc  Temp:    12900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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