[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 October 09

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z OCTOBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 OCTOBER - 09 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Oct:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Oct:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Oct             08 Oct             09 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3

COMMENT: The solar wind speed ranged between about 300 and 380 
km/s over the past 24 hours. The solar disc is spotless. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 06 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12111011
      Darwin               1   11101001
      Townsville           5   22112112
      Learmonth            1   11111000
      Canberra             0   01000000
      Hobart               2   11111011
      Casey(Ant)           6   23221111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0100 0101     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Oct     5    Quiet 
08 Oct     5    Quiet 
09 Oct     5    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Oct      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
06 Oct     2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      00-02 and 14-19 UT. No Vanimo data.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30%
      10-12, 16-20 UT at Cocos Is. and 04-07, 17 UT at
      Darwin. Depressions to 25% 01-06 UT at Brisbane,
      Norfolk Is. and Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 45%
      09-20 UT at Canberra, Hobart and Sydney.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 30%
      08-19 UT.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:   1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Oct     1    Near predicted monthly values 
08 Oct     1    Near predicted monthly values 
09 Oct     1    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Depressions possible, particularly at lower latitudes. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+04   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Oct
Speed: 390 km/sec  Density:    0.4 p/cc  Temp:    44200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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