[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 November 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 27 10:10:04 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z NOVEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 NOVEMBER - 29 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Nov:  75/13


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Nov             28 Nov             29 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    73/9               71/6               70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at very low levels over the 
last 24 hours. Solar wind speed gradually decreased from
440 to 370 km/s and the Bz component of IMF stayed negative 
(upto -5nT) for most parts of the UT day today. Solar activity 
is expected to stay mostly at quiet levels for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 26 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   12221222
      Darwin               5   11221222
      Townsville           8   22222232
      Learmonth            5   11221222
      Canberra             5   11221212
      Hobart               5   11221311
      Casey(Ant)          10   23332222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs       NA
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   3221 1001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Nov     5    Quiet 
28 Nov     5    Quiet 
29 Nov     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at quiet levels 
today. Similar conditions may be exptected for the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today, although 
strong sporadic E layers were observed at low and mid latitudes. 
HF conditions are expected to stay mostly at normal levels 
for the next 3 days as no significant ionospheric variations 
are expected during this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
26 Nov    -7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:   1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Nov     0    near predicted monthly values 
28 Nov     0    near predicted monthly values 
29 Nov     0    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed acros 
Aus/NZ regions over the last 24 hours. Similar conditions 
may be expected for the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Nov
Speed: 435 km/sec  Density:    0.2 p/cc  Temp:    31700 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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