[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 November 09

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z NOVEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 NOVEMBER - 28 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Nov:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Nov             27 Nov             28 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    74/11              73/9               71/6
COMMENT: There are currently no spots on the solar disk. The 
solar wind speed is currently mildly elevated, presumably due 
to a solar coronal hole. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 25 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   23322111
      Darwin               6   22222112
      Townsville           8   22322222
      Learmonth            4   22222001
      Canberra             4   22222000
      Hobart               6   23322000
      Casey(Ant)          14   34432222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              6   0001 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
27 Nov     5    Quiet 
28 Nov     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Mild recurrent activity possible today. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
27 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: A very mild degradation in HF communications quality 
is possible today at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Nov    15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Niue Island Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:   1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Nov     0    Near predicted monthly values 
27 Nov     0    Near predicted monthly values 
28 Nov     0    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: MUFs expected to remain near predicted values at low to 
mid latitudes. Some mild (15%) depressions may be experieneced 
in polar regions on 26 Nov. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+04   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Nov
Speed: 382 km/sec  Density:    4.3 p/cc  Temp:    43800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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