[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 November 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 25 10:10:27 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z NOVEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 NOVEMBER - 27 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Nov: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Nov 26 Nov 27 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low over the last 24 hours.
The solar disc is spotless. The solar wind speed increased over
the second half of the UT day along with solar wind density and
some moderate fluctuations in IMF Bz. The increased activity
is likely associated with a solar sector boundary crossing. Solar
activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the next
three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 24 Nov : A K
Australian Region 9 21123332
Darwin 8 11113332
Townsville 10 22223332
Learmonth 8 21023332
Canberra 7 11113232
Hobart 9 32113232
Casey(Ant) 12 3-323332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Nov :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 19 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Nov 5 Quiet
26 Nov 5 Quiet
27 Nov 2 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was mostly Quiet for the first
half of the UT day and Unsettled for the remainder. The increased
activity was due to an increase in solar wind speed and density
and moderate fluctuations in the IMF Bz likely associated with
a solar sector boundary crossing. Expect geomagnetic conditions
to return to mostly Quiet levels with isolated Unsettled periods
today (25 Nov). Isolated Active periods possible at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
26 Nov Normal Normal Normal
27 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Nov -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Nov -12 Near predicted monthly values to 10% depressed.
26 Nov -15 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
27 Nov -15 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
COMMENT: HF conditions were variable over the past 24 hours,
mostly normal in the equatorial region and S.Aus and fair in
N.Aus. Very strong and at times blanketing sporadic-E was observed
at multiple N.Aus sites as well as Norfolk Is. MUFs were mostly
near predicted monthly values. Expect continuing periods of
sporadic-E at mid latitudes sites, but HF conditions otherwise
mostly normal next 3 days. Some minor MUF depressions expected
across the S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Nov
Speed: 420 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 44300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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