[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 November 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 24 10:20:40 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z NOVEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 NOVEMBER - 26 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Nov: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Nov 25 Nov 26 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low over the last
24 hours. Solar wind speed declined from 440 to 360 km/s
over the UT day today. IMF Bz was relatively stable (mostly
between +/-2nT) over the UT day. Solar activity is expected
to remain at very low levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 12111111
Darwin 2 -1110011
Townsville 6 22212221
Learmonth 2 11011111
Canberra 0 01001000
Hobart 1 01------
Casey(Ant) 7 23222121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Nov :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 2010 1100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Nov 2 Quiet
25 Nov 2 Quiet
26 Nov 5 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed today.
Similar conditions may be expected on 24 and 25 November
with some possibility of isolated unsettled periods on 27
November due to a recurrent pattern.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Nov Normal Normal Normal
25 Nov Normal Normal Normal
26 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Depressions in MUFs and sporadic E blanketing
observed at low and some mid latitude stations. The ionosphere
continues to remain relatively weaker due to low solar activity.
At times, this may result in minor MUF depressions during the
next 3 days. Periods of minor to mild depressions in MUFs may
be possible at high latitudes on 27 November due to some
possibility of a slight rise in geomagnetic activity on this day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Nov -9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Nov -9 Near predicted monthly values to 10% depressed.
25 Nov -9 Near predicted monthly values to 10% depressed.
26 Nov -12 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
COMMENT: HF conditions were variable over the past 24 hours,
mostly normal in N.Aus and equatorial regions and normal to
fair in S.Aus. Very strong and at times blanketing sporadic-E
was observed at low and some mid latitude locations. MUFs
were mostly near predicted monthly values with periods of
minor depressions in S.Aus and the Antarctic regions. Mostly
normal HF conditions may be expected across Aus/NZ regions
for the next 3 days with some possibility of minor degradations
on 27 November in the southern parts of this region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Nov
Speed: 509 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 115000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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