[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 November 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 28 12:22:22 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z NOVEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 NOVEMBER - 30 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Nov: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Nov 29 Nov 30 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at very low levels over the last
24 hours. Solar wind speed gradually decreased from 360 to 330
km/s and the Bz component of IMF stayed close to the normal value
for most parts of the UT day today. Solar acivity is expected
to stay mostly at quiet levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 12211111
Darwin 3 11111111
Townsville 6 22221122
Learmonth 3 11111102
Canberra 1 11101000
Hobart 1 01111001
Casey(Ant) 8 33322111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 6 1012 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Nov 3 Quiet
29 Nov 3 Quiet
30 Nov 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at quiet levels today.
Similar conditions may be exptected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Nov Normal Normal Normal
29 Nov Normal Normal Normal
30 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today, although strong
sporadic E layers were observed at low and mid latitudes. HF
conditions are expected to stay mostly at normal levels for the
next 3 days as no significant ionospheric variations are expected
during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Nov -5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Nov -3 near predicted monthly values
29 Nov -3 near predicted monthly values
30 Nov -3 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across Aus/NZ
regions over the last 24 hours. Similar conditions may be expected
for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Nov
Speed: 395 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 44300 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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