[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 November 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 21 10:01:52 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z NOVEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 NOVEMBER - 23 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Nov: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Nov 22 Nov 23 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low over the last 24 hours.
AR1032 (N15W03) and AR1033 (N19E23), remain magnetic beta class
spot groups, although 1033 has continued to grow in size. Solar
wind speeds are increasing under the influence of a weak coronal
hole, and were at 450km/s at the time of this report. Solar activity
is expected to remain at very low levels for the next three days.
The coronal hole wind stream is expected to be geoeffective for
the next 2-3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 22112121
Darwin 3 21111111
Townsville 6 22222221
Learmonth 4 21012121
Canberra 1 11001110
Hobart 2 11011110
Casey(Ant) 10 33322222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 2 0100 0002
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Nov 5 Quiet
23 Nov 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet over the last
24 hours, with an isolated Unsettled period early in the UT day.
Expect Quiet to Unsettled conditions 21 Nov due to a weak coronal
hole solar wind stream. Isolated Active conditions possible at
high latitudes. Geomagnetic conditions should return to mostly
Quiet levels 22 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
22 Nov Normal Normal Normal
23 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Nov 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Nov 0 near predicted monthly values
22 Nov -5 Near predicted monthly values
23 Nov -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric support continued to strengthen over the
last 24 hours as a result of increased solar activity and some
mild geomagnetic activity. HF conditions were mostly normal over
the UT day in the Australian and sub-Antarctic regions. Considerable
periods of sporadic-E were again observed at mid-latitude stations
particularly in the afternoon and around dusk. Expect some mildly
degraded HF conditions 21 Nov in response to increased geomagnetic
activity, mostly at high latitudes. MUFs near predicted monthly
values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Nov
Speed: 335 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 32400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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