[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 November 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 20 10:37:10 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z NOVEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 NOVEMBER - 22 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Nov:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Nov             21 Nov             22 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20

COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low over the last 24 hours. 
AR1032 (N15E10) and AR1033 (N20E35), remain magnetic beta class 
spot groups, although 1033 has grown in size. The solar wind 
speed remains around 300-350km/s however the density has increased 
significantly over the last 12h likely indicating the arrival 
of a high speed coronal hole wind stream. Solar activity is expected 
to remain at very low levels for the next three days. The coronal 
hole wind stream is expected to be geoeffective from today (20 
Nov) for the next 3 days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 19 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22111112
      Darwin               4   21110113
      Townsville           6   22211222
      Learmonth            3   21010112
      Canberra             1   11000002
      Hobart               1   01100002
      Casey(Ant)          10   33322113
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs       22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0011 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
21 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
22 Nov     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over the last 24 hours. 
Expect Quiet to Unsettled conditions 20-21 Nov due to a recurrent 
coronal hole high speed solar wind stream. Isolated Active conditions 
possible at high latitudes. Geomagnetic conditions should return 
to mostly Quiet levels 22 Nov. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
21 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
22 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal        

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Nov    -2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:   1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Nov    10    near predicted monthly values 
21 Nov     0    near predicted monthly values 
22 Nov    -5    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Ionospheric support continued to strengthen over the 
last 24 hours as a result of an increase in the number and activity 
of solar active regions. HF conditions were mostly normal over 
the UT day in the Australian and sub-Antarctic regions. Considerable 
periods of sporadic-E were observed at mid-latitude stations 
particularly in the afternoon and around dusk. Expect some degraded 
HF conditions 20-21 Nov in response to enhanced geomagnetic activity, 
particularly at high latitudes. MUFs near predicted monthly values. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+04   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Nov
Speed: 296 km/sec  Density:    0.7 p/cc  Temp: NA K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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