[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 November 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 20 10:37:10 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z NOVEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 NOVEMBER - 22 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Nov: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Nov 21 Nov 22 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low over the last 24 hours.
AR1032 (N15E10) and AR1033 (N20E35), remain magnetic beta class
spot groups, although 1033 has grown in size. The solar wind
speed remains around 300-350km/s however the density has increased
significantly over the last 12h likely indicating the arrival
of a high speed coronal hole wind stream. Solar activity is expected
to remain at very low levels for the next three days. The coronal
hole wind stream is expected to be geoeffective from today (20
Nov) for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 22111112
Darwin 4 21110113
Townsville 6 22211222
Learmonth 3 21010112
Canberra 1 11000002
Hobart 1 01100002
Casey(Ant) 10 33322113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0011 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Expect Quiet to Unsettled conditions 20-21 Nov due to a recurrent
coronal hole high speed solar wind stream. Isolated Active conditions
possible at high latitudes. Geomagnetic conditions should return
to mostly Quiet levels 22 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
21 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
22 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Nov -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Nov 10 near predicted monthly values
21 Nov 0 near predicted monthly values
22 Nov -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric support continued to strengthen over the
last 24 hours as a result of an increase in the number and activity
of solar active regions. HF conditions were mostly normal over
the UT day in the Australian and sub-Antarctic regions. Considerable
periods of sporadic-E were observed at mid-latitude stations
particularly in the afternoon and around dusk. Expect some degraded
HF conditions 20-21 Nov in response to enhanced geomagnetic activity,
particularly at high latitudes. MUFs near predicted monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Nov
Speed: 296 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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