[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 November 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 22 10:48:12 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z NOVEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 NOVEMBER - 24 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Nov: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Nov 23 Nov 24 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low over the last 24 hours
with no significant flares from the two beta-class spot groups
1032 (N15W19) and 1033 (N18E07). A slow-moving CME was observed
in SOHO C2 imagery from 0755UT, likely associated with a disapearing
solar filament near S40E40 visible in both H-alpha and SOHO EIT
imagery around 0430UT. Solar wind speed increased steadily under
the influence of a coronal hole wind stream reaching a peak of
550km/s before dropping back to 500km/s at the time of this report.
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the
next three days. The coronal hole wind stream is expected to
decline over the next two days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Nov : A K
Australian Region 8 33221122
Darwin 7 33211122
Townsville 9 33222222
Learmonth 8 33221122
Canberra 5 22211022
Hobart 8 33321022
Casey(Ant) 13 4--32223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Nov :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 1000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Nov 5 Quiet
23 Nov 3 Quiet
24 Nov 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions ranged from Quiet to Unsettled
over the last 24 hours, with isolated Active to Minor Storm periods
at high latitudes, under the influence of a high speed coronal
hole wind stream. Expect mostly Quiet conditions next three days
with isolated Active periods at high latitudes 22 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Nov Normal Normal Fair
23 Nov Normal Normal Normal
24 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Nov 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Nov -8 Near predicted monthly values
23 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values
24 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric support/MUFs were near predicted monthly
values over the UT day at all latitudes. Some degraded HF conditions
were experienced at high and mid latitude sites as a result of
increased geomagnetic activity. Considerable periods of sporadic-E
were again observed at mid-latitude sites in the afternoon and
around dusk, as well as near sunrise on the east coast of Australia.
Expect some mildly degraded HF conditions in the S.Aus/Antarctic
regions 22 Nov. MUFs near predicted monthly values but decreasing
next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Nov
Speed: 382 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 74400 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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