[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 November 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 15 10:15:47 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z NOVEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 NOVEMBER - 17 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Nov: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 77/16
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low over the last 24
hours. The solar wind speed stayed between 300 and 340 km/s
over this period. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field stayed mostly negative around -5nT during the
UT day today. Solar activity is expected to stay at very low
to low levels for the next three days as the old regions 1029
has rotated onto the visible disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Nov: Mostly quiet. Isolated
unsettled periods.
Estimated Indices 14 Nov : A K
Australian Region 9 22332222
Darwin 7 22232112
Townsville 9 22332222
Learmonth 7 22232212
Canberra 5 12221211
Hobart 7 12322221
Casey(Ant) 12 -4422122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Nov :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Nov 3 Quiet
16 Nov 2 Quiet
17 Nov 2 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions remained mostly at quiet
levels with isolated unsettled periods observed on some
locations today. Sustained periods of negative Bz seem to
have enhanced the geomagnetic activity to unsettled levels
at times today. Geomagnetic activity is expected to stay
mostly at quiet levels for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
16 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
17 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Depressions in MUFs and sporadic E blanketing
observed at low and some mid latitude stations. The
ionosphere continues to remain relatively weaker due
to low solar activity. This may result in minor to mild
MUF depressions during the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Nov -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with periods
of depressions and degaradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
16 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
17 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
COMMENT: HF conditions remained mostly at normal to fair
levels on most locations on 14 November. Similar conditions
may be expected for the next three days as no significant
variations to the ionospheric conditions are expected during
this period and the ionosphere remains relatively weaker due
to continued very low solar activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Nov
Speed: 283 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 12800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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