[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 November 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 15 10:15:47 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z NOVEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 NOVEMBER - 17 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Nov:  75/13

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Nov             16 Nov             17 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              77/16
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low over the last 24
hours. The solar wind speed stayed between 300 and 340 km/s 
over this period. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field stayed mostly negative around -5nT during the 
UT day today. Solar activity is expected to stay at very low 
to low levels for the next three days as the old regions 1029 
has rotated onto the visible disk. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Nov: Mostly quiet. Isolated
unsettled periods. 

Estimated Indices 14 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22332222
      Darwin               7   22232112
      Townsville           9   22332222
      Learmonth            7   22232212
      Canberra             5   12221211
      Hobart               7   12322221
      Casey(Ant)          12   -4422122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Nov : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0000 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Nov     3    Quiet 
16 Nov     2    Quiet 
17 Nov     2    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions remained mostly at quiet 
levels with isolated unsettled periods observed on some 
locations today. Sustained periods of negative Bz seem to 
have enhanced the geomagnetic activity to unsettled levels 
at times today. Geomagnetic activity is expected to stay 
mostly at quiet levels for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
16 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
17 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Depressions in MUFs and sporadic E blanketing 
observed at low and some mid latitude stations. The 
ionosphere continues to remain relatively weaker due 
to low solar activity. This may result in minor to mild 
MUF depressions during the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
14 Nov    -6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with periods
      of depressions and degaradations.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:   1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Nov   -10    Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed. 
16 Nov   -10    Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed. 
17 Nov   -10    Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed. 
COMMENT: HF conditions remained mostly at normal to fair 
levels on most locations on 14 November. Similar conditions 
may be expected for the next three days as no significant 
variations to the ionospheric conditions are expected during 
this period and the ionosphere remains relatively weaker due 
to continued very low solar activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Nov
Speed: 283 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp:    12800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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