[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 November 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 14 10:24:14 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z NOVEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 NOVEMBER - 16 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Nov: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low over the last 24 hours.
The solar wind speed stayed between 280 and 300 km/s over this
period. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field stayed between +/-4 nT almost the whole day on 13 November.
Solar activity is expected to stay at very low to low levels
for the next three days as the old regions 1029 is now rotating
onto the visible disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 12111112
Darwin 2 11000012
Townsville 6 22212222
Learmonth 2 11001112
Canberra 1 02000011
Hobart 4 12111112
Casey(Ant) 5 --221122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Nov :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 1 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Nov 1 Quiet
15 Nov 1 Quiet
16 Nov 1 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions remained at quiet levels today.
Similar conditions may be expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
15 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
16 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Depressions in MUFs and sporadic E blanketing
observed at low and some mid latitude stations. The ionosphere
continues to remain relatively weaker due to low solar activity.
This may result in minor to mild MUF depressions during the
next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Nov -17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Nov -20 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
15 Nov -20 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
16 Nov -20 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
COMMENT: HF conditions remained mostly at normal to fair levels
on most locations on 13 November. Similar conditions may be
expected for the next three days as no significant variations
to the ionospheric conditions are expected during this period
and the ionosphere remains relatively weaker due to continued
very low solar activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Nov
Speed: 283 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 12400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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