[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 November 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 13 10:06:08 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z NOVEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 NOVEMBER - 15 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Nov:  73/9

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Nov             14 Nov             15 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    73/9               74/11              75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low over the last 
24 hours. The solar wind speed stayed between 270 and 
300 km/s over this period. The north-south component of 
the interplanetary magnetic field stayed between +/-2 nT 
almost the whole day on 12 November. Solar activity is expected 
to stay at very low levels on 13 November and at very low 
to low levels on 14 and 15 November as the old regions 1029 
is expected to rotate onto the visitble disk on 14 November. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 12 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11111011
      Darwin               2   11110011
      Townsville           5   22211122
      Learmonth            1   10001001
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               3   11111111
      Casey(Ant)           6   23321010
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Nov : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              1   0000 0000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Nov     1    Quiet 
14 Nov     1    Quiet 
15 Nov     1    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions remained at quiet levels today. 
Similar conditions may be expected for the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
14 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
15 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Depressions in MUFs and sporadic E blanketing observed 
at low and some mid latitude stations. The ionosphere continues 
to remain relatively weaker due to low solar activity. This may 
result in minor to mild MUF depressions during the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
12 Nov   -12

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with  
      periods of depressions and degradations.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:   1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Nov   -20    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed. 
14 Nov   -20    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed. 
15 Nov   -20    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed. 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on 11 November 
and is current for interval 11-13 November. HF conditions remained 
mostly at normal to fair levels on most locations on 12 November. 
Similar conditions may be expected for the next three days as 
no significant variations to the ionospheric conditions are expected 
during this period and the ionosphere remains relatively weaker 
due to continued low solar activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Nov
Speed: 309 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:    14600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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