[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 November 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 12 10:22:03 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z NOVEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 NOVEMBER - 14 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Nov:  72/8

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Nov             13 Nov             14 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low over the last 
24 hours. The solar wind speed decreased from 340 km/s to 
280 km/s over this period. The north-south component of 
the interplanetary magnetic field stayed between +/-2 nT 
almost the whole day on 11 November. Solar activity is 
expected to stay at very low levels for the next 3 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 11 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11211011
      Darwin               2   11100012
      Townsville           6   22222122
      Learmonth            2   11111011
      Canberra             0   00100000
      Hobart               3   11211011
      Casey(Ant)           7   32321111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Nov : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              1   0000 0101     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Nov     2    Quiet 
13 Nov     2    Quiet 
14 Nov     2    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions remained at quiet levels today. 
Similar conditions may be expected for the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
13 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
14 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Depressions in MUFs and sporadic E blanketing 
observed at low and some mid latitude stations. The 
ionosphere continues to remain relatively weaker due 
to low solar activity. This may result in minor to mild 
MUF depressions during the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
11 Nov   -18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with periods
      of depressions and degradations.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:   1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Nov   -22    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed. 
13 Nov   -22    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed. 
14 Nov   -22    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed. 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on 
11 November and is current for interval 11-13 November. HF 
conditions remained mostly at normal to fair levels on most 
locations on 11 November. Similar conditions may be expected 
for the next three days as no significant variations to the 
ionospheric conditions are expected during this period and 
the ionosphere remains relatively weaker due to continued 
low solar activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Nov
Speed: 359 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:    32200 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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