[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 November 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 12 10:22:03 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z NOVEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 NOVEMBER - 14 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Nov: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low over the last
24 hours. The solar wind speed decreased from 340 km/s to
280 km/s over this period. The north-south component of
the interplanetary magnetic field stayed between +/-2 nT
almost the whole day on 11 November. Solar activity is
expected to stay at very low levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 11211011
Darwin 2 11100012
Townsville 6 22222122
Learmonth 2 11111011
Canberra 0 00100000
Hobart 3 11211011
Casey(Ant) 7 32321111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Nov :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 1 0000 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Nov 2 Quiet
13 Nov 2 Quiet
14 Nov 2 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions remained at quiet levels today.
Similar conditions may be expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
13 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
14 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Depressions in MUFs and sporadic E blanketing
observed at low and some mid latitude stations. The
ionosphere continues to remain relatively weaker due
to low solar activity. This may result in minor to mild
MUF depressions during the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Nov -18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with periods
of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Nov -22 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
13 Nov -22 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
14 Nov -22 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on
11 November and is current for interval 11-13 November. HF
conditions remained mostly at normal to fair levels on most
locations on 11 November. Similar conditions may be expected
for the next three days as no significant variations to the
ionospheric conditions are expected during this period and
the ionosphere remains relatively weaker due to continued
low solar activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Nov
Speed: 359 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 32200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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