[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 November 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 11 10:34:12 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z NOVEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 NOVEMBER - 13 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Nov: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low over the last
24 hours. The solar wind speed decreased from 370 km/s
to 340 km/s over this period. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field stayed slightly
positive (upto around +3nT) for most parts of the UT day
on 10 November. Solar activity is expected to stay at
very low levels for the next 3 days.
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 12111111
Darwin 3 12100112
Townsville 5 22211122
Learmonth 2 21101101
Canberra 0 01000000
Hobart 2 11111011
Casey(Ant) 6 23221112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Nov :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1221 0100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Nov 3 Quiet
12 Nov 3 Quiet
13 Nov 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions remained at quiet levels today.
Similar conditions may be expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
12 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
13 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Depressions in MUFs and sporadic E blanketing observed
at low and some mid latitude stations. The ionosphere continues
to remain relatively weaker due to low solar activity. This may
result in minor to mild MUF depressions during the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Nov -25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
12 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
13 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
COMMENT: HF conditions remained mostly at normal to fair
levels on most locations on 10 November. Similar conditions
may be expected for the next three days as no significant
variations to the ionospheric conditions are expected during
this period and the ionosphere remains relatively weaker due
to continued low solar activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Nov
Speed: 394 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 66600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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