[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 November 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 16 10:19:56 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z NOVEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 NOVEMBER - 18 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Nov:  75/13

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Nov             17 Nov             18 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              77/16              78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low over the last 
24 hours. The solar wind speed stayed between 340 and 
380 km/s over this period. The north-south component of 
the interplanetary magnetic field stayed between -5nT and 
zero during the UT day today. Solar activity is expected 
to stay at very low levels for the next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 15 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   21123311
      Darwin               6   21113311
      Townsville           8   22223321
      Learmonth            6   21023311
      Canberra             4   10113300
      Hobart               6   21113311
      Casey(Ant)           8   23322211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   1122 2012     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Nov     3    Quiet 
17 Nov     3    Quiet 
18 Nov     3    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions remained mostly at quiet 
levels with some unsettled periods observed on some locations 
today. Sustained periods of negative Bz seem to have enhanced 
the geomagnetic activity to unsettled levels at times today. 
Geomagnetic activity is expected to stay mostly at quiet levels 
for the next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
17 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
18 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Depressions in MUFs and sporadic E blanketing 
observed at low and some mid latitude stations. The 
ionosphere continues to remain relatively weaker due 
to continued very low solar activity. This may result 
in minor to mild MUF depressions during the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
15 Nov   -17

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:   1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Nov   -15    Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed. 
17 Nov   -15    Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed. 
18 Nov   -15    Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed. 
COMMENT: HF conditions remained mostly at normal to fair levels 
on most locations on 15 November. Similar conditions may be 
expected for the next three days as no significant variations
to the ionospheric conditions are expected during this period 
and the ionosphere remains relatively weaker due to continued 
very low solar activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+04   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Nov
Speed: 321 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp: NA K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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