[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 November 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 16 10:19:56 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z NOVEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 NOVEMBER - 18 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Nov: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 77/16 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low over the last
24 hours. The solar wind speed stayed between 340 and
380 km/s over this period. The north-south component of
the interplanetary magnetic field stayed between -5nT and
zero during the UT day today. Solar activity is expected
to stay at very low levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Nov : A K
Australian Region 7 21123311
Darwin 6 21113311
Townsville 8 22223321
Learmonth 6 21023311
Canberra 4 10113300
Hobart 6 21113311
Casey(Ant) 8 23322211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 1122 2012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Nov 3 Quiet
17 Nov 3 Quiet
18 Nov 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions remained mostly at quiet
levels with some unsettled periods observed on some locations
today. Sustained periods of negative Bz seem to have enhanced
the geomagnetic activity to unsettled levels at times today.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to stay mostly at quiet levels
for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
17 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
18 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Depressions in MUFs and sporadic E blanketing
observed at low and some mid latitude stations. The
ionosphere continues to remain relatively weaker due
to continued very low solar activity. This may result
in minor to mild MUF depressions during the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Nov -17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Nov -15 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
17 Nov -15 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
18 Nov -15 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
COMMENT: HF conditions remained mostly at normal to fair levels
on most locations on 15 November. Similar conditions may be
expected for the next three days as no significant variations
to the ionospheric conditions are expected during this period
and the ionosphere remains relatively weaker due to continued
very low solar activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Nov
Speed: 321 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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