[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 November 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 2 10:30:58 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z NOVEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 NOVEMBER - 04 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Nov: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Nov 03 Nov 04 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 70/5
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity was observed over the last 24
hours. The solar disc is spotless at this time. Solar wind speed
varied between 320 and 375 km/s and is presently 340 km/s. The
solar wind is expected to remain below 400 km/s for the next
three days. Noted solar sector boundry crossing at approximately
01/0230UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 13221111
Darwin 5 13220111
Townsville 7 23221221
Learmonth 6 13221221
Canberra 3 03210100
Hobart 5 13211111
Casey(Ant) 8 24311111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Nov :
Darwin 15 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Nov 2 Quiet
03 Nov 2 Quiet
04 Nov 2 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed
for the last 24 hours in the Australian and Antarctic regions.
Expect mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions for the next three
days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Nov Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal
03 Nov Normal Normal Normal
04 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Nov -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Nov -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
03 Nov 1 Near predicted monthly values
04 Nov 1 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Expect near predicted monthly HF conditions for the
Australian and Antarctic regions with of minor depressions possible.
Noted blanketing sporadic E at Sydney between 0000-0500UT and
spread F at Hobart between 1300-1800UT.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Oct
Speed: 331 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 21200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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