[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 November 09

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z NOVEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 NOVEMBER - 05 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Nov:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Nov:  71/6

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Nov             04 Nov             05 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: The solar disc is spotless. Solar wind speed ranged 
between about 290 and 400 km/s and is presently around 370 km/s. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Nov: Quiet to unsettled.
Isolated active period at high latitudes. 

Estimated Indices 02 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22331111
      Darwin               6   12321112
      Townsville           8   22332221
      Learmonth            7   22331111
      Canberra             4   12320100
      Hobart               5   12321111
      Casey(Ant)          10   23432112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Nov : 
      Darwin              25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0100 0100     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Nov     5    Quiet 
04 Nov     5    Quiet 
05 Nov     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: The field is expected to become disturbed, possibly late 
on the 5 Nov., due to a recurrent coronal hole. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
04 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
05 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
02 Nov    -8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with  enhancements to
      40% observed 08-12 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly 15-30% depressed.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 20%
      mostly between 00-06 and 21-23 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with 15% depressions
      22-23 UT. Night spread F observed at Hobart 14-18 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:   1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Nov    -5    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed. 
04 Nov    -5    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed. 
05 Nov    -5    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Nov
Speed: 343 km/sec  Density:    0.5 p/cc  Temp:    28500 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and 
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to 
receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"