[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 October 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 1 10:10:50 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z OCTOBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 NOVEMBER - 03 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Oct: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Nov 02 Nov 03 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 73/9 73/9
COMMENT: Low solar activity was observed over the last 24 hours
due to C and B class flares being detected by the GOES 10 satellite.
The solar disc is spotless at this time. Do not expect any further
flare activity since AR 1029 rotated out of view. However, noted
a CME on the west limb, first observed by SOHO LASCO C3 imager
at 0741UT, is not expected to be geoeffective. Solar wind speed
varied between 365 and 300 km/s and is presently 320 km/s. The
Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was greater
than -2nT for the last 24 hours. The solar wind is expected to
remain below 400 km/s for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 11111112
Darwin 3 11011122
Townsville 6 22122222
Learmonth 3 11111112
Canberra 1 00001111
Hobart 4 11112212
Casey(Ant) 5 21221112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Oct :
Darwin 15 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11 3443 1100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Nov 2 Quiet
02 Nov 2 Quiet
03 Nov 2 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed for
the last 24 hours in the Australian and Antarctic regions. Expect
this trend to continue for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal
03 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Oct -11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Nov -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
02 Nov -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
03 Nov 1 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Expect near predicted monthly HF conditions for the
Australian and Antarctic regions with of minor depressions possible
for the next two days. Noted sporadic E (Es) during the local
evening hours at Brisbane, Townsville, and Darwin. Also noted
Es at Norfolk Island during the late local day time hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Oct
Speed: 369 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 56600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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