[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 May 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 19 09:45:03 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z MAY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 19 MAY - 21 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 May: Very Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 May: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 May 20 May 21 May
Activity Very Low Very Low Very Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed was ~300km/s over the UT day. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +/-5nT, with
a notable southward period of -3nT between 00UT-04UT. Solar activity
is expected to remain at very low levels for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 May : A K
Australian Region 1 11100011
Darwin 2 11000012
Townsville 5 22211122
Learmonth 2 11100012
Camden 1 11000001
Canberra 0 00000001
Hobart 1 10100001
Casey(Ant) 4 12211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 May : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1100 0112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 May 5 Quiet
20 May 5 Quiet
21 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Quiet conditions are expected for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 May 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 May 10 near predicted monthly values
20 May 10 near predicted monthly values
21 May 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours for all regions, with enhanced conditions for Equatorial,
Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions during local night.
Some isolated disturbed periods for Antarctic regions. Similar
conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 May
Speed: 373 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 41900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list