[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 May 09

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z MAY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 18 MAY - 20 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 May:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 May:  74/11

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 May             19 May             20 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              74/11              74/11

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 17 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100000
      Darwin               1   11100001
      Townsville           4   22211111
      Learmonth            1   11010000
      Camden               0   11000000
      Canberra             0   01000000
      Hobart               0   01000000
      Casey(Ant)           2   12110100
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   1102 1222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 May     5    Quiet 
19 May     5    Quiet 
20 May     5    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 May      Normal         Normal         Normal        
19 May      Normal         Normal         Normal        
20 May      Normal         Normal         Normal        

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
17 May    13

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      04-10, 17-20 UT. No data for Niue.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:   4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 May    10    Near predicted monthly values 
19 May    10    Near predicted monthly values 
20 May    10    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 May
Speed: 383 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:    60700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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