[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 May 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 20 09:38:56 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z MAY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 20 MAY - 22 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 May: Very Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 May: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 May 21 May 22 May
Activity Very Low Very Low Very Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 73/9 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed declined from 300km/s at 00UT to be ~280km/s
at the time of this report. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field ranged between +/-5nT. Solar activity is expected
to remain at very low levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 May : A K
Australian Region 3 22110011
Darwin 2 22100011
Townsville 5 22211122
Learmonth 2 21210010
Camden 2 12110001
Canberra 1 11110001
Hobart 2 11120000
Casey(Ant) 4 22211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 2100 1102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 May 5 Quiet
21 May 5 Quiet
22 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Quiet conditions are expected for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 May 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 May 10 near predicted monthly values
21 May 10 near predicted monthly values
22 May 10 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours for all regions, with enhanced conditions for Northern
AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions during local night. Some isolated
disturbed periods for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions are
expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 May
Speed: 302 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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