[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 May 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 8 09:52:48 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z MAY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 08 MAY - 10 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 May: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 May 09 May 10 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: The visible solar disc remains spotless. The active
region that produced the east limb CME on the 5th has not yet
rotated into view. A north-south elongated recurrent coronal
hole is in geoeffective position with the ACE spacecraft near
Earth showing higher solar wind speeds than the STEREO spacecraft
either side. The solar wind declined from the elevated 480km/sec
at 14UT to ~420 km/sec, but has shown signs of rising again from
22UT to near 480km/sec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 May : A K
Australian Region 6 22221222
Darwin 6 21221222
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 9 22222323
Camden 5 22121212
Canberra 5 22121212
Hobart 5 2212121-
Casey(Ant) 8 32221322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 May :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 4 (Quiet)
Gnangara 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2111 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
09 May 6 Quiet
10 May 3 Quiet
COMMENT: The high speed solar wind from the recurrent coronal
hole is still in effect although it dropped in the UT day and
is rising again. However the coupling to the geomagnetic field
has not been strong and mid to low latitudes have remained at
Quiet levels. High latitudes have shown Unsettled to Storm levels
at the auroral oval but only sporadic inside the polar cap. Extended
IMF Bz southwards from ~12UT has increased activity at auroral
oval latitudes also. Possible isolated Active periods in the
next day at mid to low latitudes and more extensive Active levels
at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 May Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
09 May Normal Normal Normal
10 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor disturbances next day from coronal hole induced
geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 May 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 May 10 about 0 15% above predicted monthly values
09 May 6 Near predicted monthly values
10 May 6 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Extensive night-time spread-F observed at equatorial
and northern Australian sites indicating strong upwelling in
the equatorial ionospheric anomaly. Coronal hole taking effect
and slightly enhanced geomagnetic conditions seem to be raising
MUFs across the region. Expected to continue for a day but also
increase MUF variability.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 May
Speed: 366 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 59200 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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