[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 May 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 9 09:38:29 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z MAY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 09 MAY - 11 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 May: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 May 10 May 11 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels for the
last 24 hours. The visible solar disc remains spotless. Solar
wind speed stayed between 480 and 520 km/s through the UT day
08 May and the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field stayed close to the normal value or slightly negative
during this time. A north-south elongated recurrent coronal
hole is in geoeffective position and may keep the solar wind
stream strengthened on 09 May. Solar activity is expected to
remain at very low levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 08 May : A K
Australian Region 8 32322122
Darwin 7 32311122
Townsville 10 33322222
Learmonth 8 32322122
Camden 7 32312121
Canberra 7 32312121
Hobart - --------
Casey(Ant) 12 43323222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 May :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Gnangara 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10 2412 2213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 May 6 Quiet to unsettled
10 May 5 Quiet
11 May 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity may stay enhanced upto
unsettled levels due to the high speed solar wind stream
from a recurrent coronal hole on 09 May. Isolated active
periods on high latitudes may also be possible on this day.
Activity is expected to decline to mostly quiet levels on
most locations on the following 2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 May Normal Normal Normal
10 May Normal Normal Normal
11 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on most locations for the next three days with some possibility
of isolated periods of minor degradations at high latitudes
on 09 May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 May 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Variable conditions during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 May 10 near predicted monthly values
10 May 12 near predicted monthly values
11 May 12 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on most locations across Aus/NZ regions for the next three
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 May
Speed: 461 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 73500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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