[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 May 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 7 09:52:23 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z MAY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 07 MAY - 09 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 May: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 May 08 May 09 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: The visible solar disc remains spotless. A north-south
elongated recurrent coronal hole is rotating into geoeffective
position earlier than expected with solar wind enhanced sharply
to ~450 km/sec from 16UT and some rise since towards 500km/sec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 May : A K
Australian Region 5 22111122
Darwin 5 22111122
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 7 32122222
Camden 3 11111112
Canberra 2 11000112
Hobart 3 11011112
Casey(Ant) 5 12112222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
08 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
09 May 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The high speed solar wind from the recurrent coronal
hole has taken effect earlier than expected at 16UT. However
mid and low latitudes are still showing Quiet levels. High latitudes
are showing Unsettled to Minor Storm at the auroral oval but
still Quiet inside the polar cap. Expect isolated Active periods
in the next two days at mid to low latitudes and more extensive
high latitude Active levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 May Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
08 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
09 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Expect minor disturbances next two days from coronal
hole induced geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 May 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 May 8 about 5% above predicted monthly values
08 May 6 0 to 5% above predicted monthly values
09 May 2 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Extensive night-time spread-F observed at equatorial
and northern Australian sites indicating strong upwelling in
the equatorial ionospheric anomaly. Cocos Is also observed strong
night sporadic-E. Coronal hole is starting to take effect so
moderately enhanced geomagnetic conditions are expected to slightly
raise MUFs in the next couple of days but also raise variability.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 May
Speed: 342 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 25800 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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