[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 May 09

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z MAY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 05 MAY - 07 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 May:  Very low

Flares: None.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 May:  68/2

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 May             06 May             07 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: The visible solar disc remains spotless. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 04 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12121101
      Darwin               2   12111001
      Townsville           6   22222122
      Learmonth            3   11222100
      Camden               2   01121000
      Canberra             2   01121000
      Hobart               3   02122000
      Casey(Ant)           5   22221201
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            12   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              11   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5   2001 1222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 May     5    Quiet 
06 May    12    Unsettled 
07 May     8    Quiet to unsettled 

COMMENT: Possible isolated active periods on days two and three 
at higher latitudes due to a recurrent coronal hole. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 May      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 May      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal        
06 May      Normal         Normal         Normal        
07 May      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
04 May     2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30% at
      Niue 00-04 and 19-23 UT and Vanimo 04-10 UT. Some
      night spread F observed at Vanimo.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      03-08 UT at Darwin and Townsville and similar
      depressions 07-10, 21-23 UT at Cocos Is. Night spread
      F observed at Cocos Is. and Darwin.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30%
      04-08 UT observed at Learmonth. Some night spread F
      observed at Learmonth and Norfolk Is.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:   4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 May     4    Near predicted monthly values 
06 May     4    Near predicted monthly values 
07 May     4    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Depressions to 30% possible at times at all latitudes. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 May
Speed: 368 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:    60000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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