[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 May 09

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z MAY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 04 MAY - 06 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 May:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 May:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 May             05 May             06 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3

COMMENT: The visible solar disc remains spotless. A coronal hole 
is currently located at central meridian. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 03 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11110001
      Darwin               1   11100001
      Townsville           6   22221212
      Learmonth            2   21120000
      Camden               1   11000001
      Canberra             0   10000000
      Hobart               1   10100001
      Casey(Ant)           4   22211101
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 May : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               4   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            13   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Hobart              13   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   1120 2112     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 May     5    Quiet 
05 May     5    Quiet 
06 May    12    Unsettled 

COMMENT: Possible isolated active periods on day three at higher 
latitudes due to a recurrent coronal hole. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
03 May     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:   4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 May     4    Near predicted monthly values 
05 May     4    Near predicted monthly values 
06 May     4    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Depressions to 30% possible at times at all latitudes. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 May
Speed: 320 km/sec  Density:    0.7 p/cc  Temp: NA K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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