[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 March 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 13 10:36:01 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z MARCH 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 13 MARCH - 15 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Mar: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Mar 14 Mar 15 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: ACE spacecraft showed the solar wind speed ranging from
340 to 390 km/s on 12 March. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF)
Bz component was southerly to about -9nT early in the UT day
12 March, however, only remained so for about an hour. Otherwise,
the IMF Bz component was mainly northward until the last hour,
about 2300UT, and has shifted to southward again at approximately
-9nT again. The solar wind is expected to increase to approximately
600 km/s today, 13 March. The solar disk is presently spotless.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 32221112
Darwin 7 32221113
Townsville 7 32221222
Learmonth 9 42221123
Camden 5 31221012
Canberra 5 32121012
Hobart 6 32221012
Casey(Ant) 10 43321112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0000 0112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Mar 16 active
14 Mar 12 Unsettled
15 Mar 6 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 10 March and
is current for interval 13-14 March. There was minor activity
early in the UT day 12 March at high latitudes due to a southerly
Bz component of the IMF reaching -9nT for aproximately an hour.
Expect active geomagnetic levels on 13-14 March with isolated
chances of minor storm levels at high latitudes due to a recurrent
coronal hole reaching its geo-effective position. On 15 March
expect geomagnetic conditions to return to quiet levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Mar Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Mar Normal Normal-Fair Fair
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Mar -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Mar -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
14 Mar -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
15 Mar -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Expect slightly depressed conditions at low to mid latitudes
due to very low solar activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Mar
Speed: 338 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 28600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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