[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 March 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 12 10:14:40 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z MARCH 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 12 MARCH - 14 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Mar: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: ACE spacecraft showed the solar wind speed ranging from
310 to 350 km/s on 11 March with the interplanetary magnetic
field Bz component fluctuating between +/-3nT. Based on recurrence
and the STEREO spacecraft the solar wind is expected to increase
to approximately 600 km/s on 13-14 March. The solar disk is presently
spotless.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 22211012
Darwin 4 21211012
Townsville 6 22222122
Learmonth 5 22201122
Camden 2 11101012
Canberra 1 11100011
Hobart 2 11201011
Casey(Ant) 8 33311122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1000 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Mar 4 Quiet
13 Mar 16 active
14 Mar 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 10 March and
is current for interval 13-14 March. Expect quiet geomagnetic
conditions today 12 March. Expect active geomagnetic levels on
13-14 March with isolated chances of minor storm levels at high
latitudes due to a recurrent coronal hole reaching its geo-effective
position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal
13 Mar Normal Normal-Fair Fair
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Mar -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Mar -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
13 Mar -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
14 Mar -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Expect slightly depressed conditions at low to mid latitudes
due to very low solar activity. Noted spread F at Hobart mainly
during local night.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Mar
Speed: 336 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 36600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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