[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 March 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 14 10:20:33 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z MARCH 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 14 MARCH - 16 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Mar: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Mar 15 Mar 16 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: ACE spacecraft showed the solar wind speed increase
from 350 to 550 on 13 March due to the recurrent coronal hole.
The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz component was southward
to about -10nT between 2300UT 12 March and 0100UT 13 March. Otherwise
fluctuated between -/+5nT for the remainder of 13 March. The
solar wind is expected to remain elevated for 14 March and return
to normal levels on 15 March. The solar disk is presently spotless.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 13 Mar : A K
Australian Region 13 33333322
Darwin 11 22333322
Townsville 14 33333332
Learmonth 15 33333432
Camden 12 33333321
Canberra 12 33333321
Hobart 14 43333322
Casey(Ant) 19 4-533322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Mar :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 54 (Unsettled)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 3200 0012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Mar 12 Unsettled
15 Mar 4 Quiet
16 Mar 4 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 10 March and
is current for interval 13-14 March. There was active levels
of geomagnetic activity at high latitudes early in the UT day
13 March, otherwise mostly unsettled conditions. Expect unsettled
conditions for 14 March and a return to quiet conditions 15-16
March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Mar Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Mar 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Mar 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
15 Mar -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
16 Mar -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Expect slightly depressed conditions at low to mid latitudes
due to very low solar activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Mar
Speed: 361 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 42900 K Bz: 9 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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