[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 June 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 26 09:54:35 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z JUNE 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 26 JUNE - 28 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jun:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Jun             27 Jun             28 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed remained elevated over the UT day and was ~470km/h 
at the time of this report. Bz ranged between +/-4nT with some 
notable southward periods. Solar activity is expected to be Very 
Low for the next 3 days with the visible solar disk now spotless. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 25 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22123222
      Darwin               7   22123122
      Townsville           8   22223222
      Learmonth            9   -2223223
      Camden               6   21113122
      Canberra             6   21113122
      Hobart               6   21123221
      Casey(Ant)           8   22223222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jun : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               8   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart              18   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             19   3342 2253     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
27 Jun     5    Quiet 
28 Jun     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the 
last 24 hours. Solar wind velocity remains elevated and is expected 
to decline over the next 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions 
are expected for the next 2 days with an expected increase in 
the solar wind speed on 28Jun due to the arrival of another high 
speed solar wind stream from a geoeffective coronal hole. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair          
27 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair          
28 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair          

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Jun    -1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:   5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Jun    -5    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
27 Jun    -5    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
28 Jun    -5    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs observed for Northern AUS/Equatorial 
regions during local day with notable sporadic E. Southern AUS/NZ 
regions experienced mostly normal HF conditions with enhanced 
MUFs during local night. Some disturbed periods for Antarctic 
regions with otherwise MUFs near predicted monthly values. Depressed 
MUFs of 10%-20% are expected for low latitudes during local day 
for the next 3 days. Mostly normal conditions for Southern AUS/NZ 
regions with possible depressed periods. Continued disturbed 
conditions for Antarctic regions. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+04   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jun
Speed: 319 km/sec  Density:    4.4 p/cc  Temp:    37100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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