[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 June 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 26 09:54:35 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z JUNE 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 26 JUNE - 28 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jun: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jun 27 Jun 28 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed remained elevated over the UT day and was ~470km/h
at the time of this report. Bz ranged between +/-4nT with some
notable southward periods. Solar activity is expected to be Very
Low for the next 3 days with the visible solar disk now spotless.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 25 Jun : A K
Australian Region 7 22123222
Darwin 7 22123122
Townsville 8 22223222
Learmonth 9 -2223223
Camden 6 21113122
Canberra 6 21113122
Hobart 6 21123221
Casey(Ant) 8 22223222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jun :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 8 (Quiet)
Gnangara 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 18 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 19 3342 2253
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jun 5 Quiet
28 Jun 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the
last 24 hours. Solar wind velocity remains elevated and is expected
to decline over the next 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions
are expected for the next 2 days with an expected increase in
the solar wind speed on 28Jun due to the arrival of another high
speed solar wind stream from a geoeffective coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
27 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
28 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jun -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jun -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
27 Jun -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
28 Jun -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs observed for Northern AUS/Equatorial
regions during local day with notable sporadic E. Southern AUS/NZ
regions experienced mostly normal HF conditions with enhanced
MUFs during local night. Some disturbed periods for Antarctic
regions with otherwise MUFs near predicted monthly values. Depressed
MUFs of 10%-20% are expected for low latitudes during local day
for the next 3 days. Mostly normal conditions for Southern AUS/NZ
regions with possible depressed periods. Continued disturbed
conditions for Antarctic regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jun
Speed: 319 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 37100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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