[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 June 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 27 09:52:57 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z JUNE 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 27 JUNE - 29 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jun: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jun 28 Jun 29 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed declined from 450km/s at 0000UT to be 400km/s
at the time of this report. Bz ranged between +/-2nT. Solar
activity is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days as
the visible solar disk remains spotless.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 22111011
Darwin 2 12110001
Townsville 5 22211112
Learmonth 3 22111011
Camden 1 11110001
Canberra 1 11010000
Hobart 4 22121011
Casey(Ant) 5 23211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 4 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 2111 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jun 5 Quiet
28 Jun 14 Unsettled to Active
29 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind velocity declined over the UT day and is expected
to continue to do so for the next 24 hours with Quiet conditions
for 27Jun. An increase in the solar wind speed is expected on
28Jun due to the arrival of another high speed solar wind stream
from a geoeffective coronal hole resulting in Unsettled to Active
conditions. Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected for 29Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jun Normal-fair Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
28 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
29 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jun 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jun 0 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
28 Jun -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
29 Jun -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs observed for Equatorial regions during
local day. Mostly normal conditions for Northern AUS and Southern
AUS/NZ regions with enhanced MUFs during local night. Disturbed
conditions for Antarctic regions. MUF depressions of 10%-20%
are expected for low latitudes during local day for the next
3 days. Mostly normal conditions for mid latitudes with possible
depressed periods. Continued disturbed conditions for Antarctic
regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jun
Speed: 472 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 97600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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