[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 June 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 25 09:54:54 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z JUNE 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 25 JUNE - 27 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jun: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jun 26 Jun 27 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed began to increase around 1000UT from 265km/h
to be 475km/h at the time of this report. Bz underwent brief
southward swings to the magnitude of -10nT to -20nT. Region 1023
remains quiet and unchanged. Solar activity is expected to be
Very Low for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jun: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 24 Jun : A K
Australian Region 13 34421232
Darwin 20 35522242
Townsville 21 35522243
Learmonth 22 35532342
Camden 13 -4421232
Canberra 12 24421132
Hobart 9 23321132
Casey(Ant) 8 23321221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jun :
Darwin 12 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 18 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Gnangara 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Hobart 18 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1001 0023
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jun 9 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Jun 9 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jun 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active over the last
24 hours. Active conditions observed between 03UT-09UT for low
to high latitudes. With the increase in solar wind velocity at
1000UT saw mainly Unsettled conditions from the arrival of the
current high speed coronal hole windstream. Mostly Unsettled
conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with possible Active
periods. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected for 26Jun
to 27Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
26 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
27 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jun -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jun -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
26 Jun -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
27 Jun 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs observed for Northern AUS/Equatorial
regions during local day again with notable sporadic E. Southern
AUS/NZ regions experienced mostly normal HF conditions with some
occasional depressed periods during local day. Mostly disturbed
conditions for Antarctic regions. Depressed MUFs of 10%-20% are
expected for mid to low latitudes for the next 3 days with the
increase in geomagnetic activity and continued disturbed conditions
for Antarctic regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jun
Speed: 268 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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