[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 July 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 26 09:31:50 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z JULY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JULY - 28 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jul: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jul 27 Jul 28 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low today (25 July).
The high speed solar wind stream from the coronal hole showed
signs of weakening. The solar wind speed gradually decreased
from 540 km/s to 470 km/s by mid day today and then fluctuated
between 460 and 520 km/s during the second half of the UT day.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field showed
minor fluctuations between +/-3nT for most parts of the day
staying positive for relatively longer periods of time. Solar
activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the next
3 days (26 to 28 July).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 22122111
Darwin 3 22111101
Townsville 6 22222221
Learmonth 4 22112111
Camden 3 22022000
Canberra 2 22011000
Hobart 4 22122101
Casey(Ant) 7 23222211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jul :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2122 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jul 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
27 Jul 4 Quiet
28 Jul 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at quiet levels
today. Because of a relatively strong solar wind stream and
a recurrent pattern periods of higher geomagnetic activity
levels may be possible on 26 July, especially if Bz stays
negative for sustained periods of time. Activity is expected
to stay mostly at quiet levels on 27 and 28 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Jul Normal Normal Normal
28 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Strong sporadic E-layer on low and some mid
latitude locations and spread F mainly on high latitudes
were observed today (25 July). HF conditions are expected
to remain mostly normal on most locations from 26 to 28 July
with some possibility of minor degradations on high latitude
locations due to a possible rise in geomagnetic activity
levels on 26 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jul -7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of minor to significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jul 0 near predicted monthly values
27 Jul 1 near predicted monthly values
28 Jul 1 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in Aus/NZ regions from 26 to 28 July with some possibility
of minor degradations in the southern regions on 26 July due
to a possible rise in geomagnetic activity levels on this day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jul
Speed: 549 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 142000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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