[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 July 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 25 09:35:03 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z JULY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JULY - 27 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jul: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jul 26 Jul 27 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low today (24 July).
The high speed solar wind stream from the coronal hole
continued to affect the earth today as well. The solar wind
speed remained between 520 and 560 km/s today with a pattern
of gradual decrease as the coronal hole effect is weakening.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field showed
minor fluctuations between +/-3nT for most parts of the day.
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels for
the next 3 days (25 to 27 July).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 11222211
Darwin 4 11112212
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 5 21222202
Camden 3 11111201
Canberra 3 11112201
Hobart 5 11222211
Casey(Ant) 11 23322421
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jul :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 1232 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jul 5 Quiet to unsettled
26 Jul 7 Quiet to unsettled
27 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at quiet levels
today. With a continued exposure of the earth to the high
speed solar wind stream from the recurrent coronal hole,
periods of higher geomagnetic activity levels can not be
ruled out on 25 July if Bz turns negative for sustained
periods. Some rise in geomagnetic activity levels on 26 July
is also possible due to a recurrent pattern. Activity is
expected to return to mostly quiet levels on 27 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jul Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Strong sporadic E-layer on low and some mid
latitude locations and spread F mainly on high latitudes
were observed today (24 July). HF conditions are expected
to remain mostly normal on most locations from 25 to 27 July
with some possibility of minor degradations on high latitude
locations due to a possible rise in geomagnetic activity
levels on 25 and 26 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jul -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of minor to significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jul 2 near predicted monthly values
26 Jul 2 near predicted monthly values
27 Jul 4 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in Aus/NZ regions from 25 to 27 July with some possibility
of minor degradations in the southern regions on 25 and 26
July due to a possible rise in geomagnetic activity levels
on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jul
Speed: 502 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 179000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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