[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 July 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 24 09:42:20 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z JULY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JULY - 26 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jul: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Jul 25 Jul 26 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 69/3 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low today (23 July).
The high speed solar wind stream from the coronal hole
continued to affect the earth today as well. The solar
wind speed gradually increased from 450 km/s to 550 km/s
during the UT day today. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field fluctuated between +/-5nT for most parts of
the day. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low
levels for the next 3 days (24 to 26 July).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 23 Jul : A K
Australian Region 8 11322322
Darwin 7 11222322
Townsville 9 22322322
Learmonth 10 11323332
Camden 6 11322211
Canberra 4 01212211
Hobart 6 11312221
Casey(Ant) 10 22322-33
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 24 3654 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Jul 6 Quiet to unsettled
25 Jul 4 Quiet
26 Jul 6 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at quiet to
unsettled levels today. With the continued exposure of
the earth to the high speed solar wind stream from the
recurrent coronal hole, periods of higher geomagnetic
activity levels can not be ruled out if Bz turns negative
for sustained periods until the coronal hole induced solar
wind stream weakens. Activity is expected to remain mostly
at quiet to unsettled levels on 24 and 26 July. Mostly
quiet conditions may be expected on 25 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal
26 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Strong sporadic E-layer on low and some mid
latitude locations and spread F mainly on high latitudes
were observed today (23 July). HF conditions are expected
to remain mostly normal on most locations from 24 to 26
July with some possibility of minor degradations on high
latitude locations due to a possible rise in geomagnetic
activity levels on 24 and 26 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Jul 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of minor to significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Jul 2 near predicted monthly values
25 Jul 4 near predicted monthly values
26 Jul 2 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in Aus/NZ regions from 24 to 26 July with some possibility
of minor degradations in the southern regions on 24 and 26
July due to a possible rise in geomagnetic activity levels
on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.90E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jul
Speed: 446 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 93600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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