[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 July 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 27 09:29:23 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z JULY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JULY - 29 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jul: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jul 28 Jul 29 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low today (26 July).
The high speed solar wind stream from the coronal hole
showed further signs of weakening. The solar wind speed
gradually decreased from 440 km/s to 420 km/s the UT day.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field showed
minor fluctuations between +/-2nT for most parts of the day
staying positive for relatively longer periods of time.
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels
for the next 3 days (27 to 29 July).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 11101001
Darwin 1 11001001
Townsville 5 22212112
Learmonth 1 11001000
Camden 0 01001000
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 1 11101001
Casey(Ant) 4 22211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 118 (Major storm)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 3301 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jul 4 Quiet
28 Jul 3 Quiet
29 Jul 3 Quiet
COMMENT: As anticipated the geomagnetic activity stayed at
quiet levels today. Similar levels of activity are expected
for the next three days (27 to 29 July).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jul Normal to fair Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jul Normal Normal Normal
28 Jul Normal Normal Normal
29 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Sporadic E-layer on low and some mid latitude
locations and spread F mainly on high latitudes were
observed today (26 July). HF conditions are expected to
remain mostly normal on most locations from 27 to 29 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jul -9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of minor to significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jul -5 near predicted monthly values
28 Jul -4 near predicted monthly values
29 Jul -4 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in Aus/NZ regions from 27 to 29 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jul
Speed: 484 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 78100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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