[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 January 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 28 10:05:54 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z JANUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JANUARY - 30 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jan: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jan 29 Jan 30 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remains very low and the solar disk has
no numbered sunspot regions. The SOHO spacecraft shows a small
region on the eastern limb near the equator in the EIT 195 wavelength
with a bipolar N-S structure in the MDI magnetogram that may
develop into a numbered region as it rotates across the disc.
The effects of the recurrent coronal hole wind stream have been
muted with moderate -5 to +5nT IMF Bz north-south fluctuations
in IMF and solar wind velocities have been choppy but not particularly
elevated at 360-380km/sec, with some spikes to 420km/sec. This
coronal hole is in a geoeffective position but appears weak in
SOHO EIT 195 imagery so the effect is expected to be low and
reduce to nil in a day or two. A moderate size coronal hole is
mid-disc at southern latitudes and may be geoeffective in a few
days. The STEREO-B spacecraft appears to show a moderate rise
in solar wind velocity to ~400km/sec a few days ahead of Earth.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 21121112
Darwin 3 11110112
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 6 22121222
Camden 3 11111112
Canberra 1 11010101
Hobart 3 11111111
Casey(Ant) 10 3-332222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 3222 3320
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jan 6 Quiet
29 Jan 4 Quiet
30 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over the UT day (27
Jan) at mid-latitudes. The effect of the CIR/coronal hole late
on 25 Jan has disspiated. High latitudes were Quiet-Unsettled
with occasional Minor Storm periods due to fluctuating IMF and
solar wind from the CIR. Expect quietening for the next two days.
As this coronal hole appears weak and unlikely to cause high solar wind
speeds, major disturbances are unlikely. Another moderate size
coronal hole may cause Unsettled conditions in a few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal
29 Jan Normal Normal Normal
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jan -16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jan -20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
29 Jan -20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
30 Jan -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to
10%
COMMENT: Intermittent sporadic-E events again observed throughout
the region, often strong blanketing Es that obscured the F-region.
The Es ocurrence appears a little less then previous days. Spread
F was also widely observed. The slight F region enhancement caused
by the Unsettled-Active geomagnetic conditions from the CIR on
the 25th died away during this UT day and MUFs were depressed
in all latitudes, particularly during the local day. At mid-latitudes
a mild post-dusk enhancement was observed at most stations but
this only brought the foF2 to monthly average levels. There were
more significant local depressions and enhancements in the equatorial
region, despite the lack of strong geomagnetic activity. These
are likely caused by high altitude (300km) thermospheric winds
and a strong enhancement with a near doubling of foF2 was seen
to propagate west from Niue (02UT) through Darwin (03UT) to Cocos
Is (05UT). Continuing Sporadic-E events seem likely from Equatorial
to S.Aus/NZ regions. Expect MUFs to continue below monthly averages
due to lack of sunspot activity for a couple of days. The next
coronal hole may slightly alleviate this in three or four days
time.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jan
Speed: 350 km/sec Density: 11.9 p/cc Temp: 44300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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