[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 January 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 29 10:14:39 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z JANUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JANUARY - 31 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jan: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jan 30 Jan 31 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remains very low and the solar disk has
no numbered sunspot regions. The SOHO spacecraft shows a small
bight region on the eastern limb near the equator with a quasi-bipolar
magnetic structure that may develop into a full sunspot region
as it rotates across the disc. Moderate IMF Bz north-south
fluctuations but lower than yesterday and no sustained Bz southwards. Solar
wind velocities declined from 380 to 340 km/sec during the day
but are rising late in the day towards 400km/sec which may indicate
the onset of the high-speed solar-wind stream (HSSWS) from the
southern solar hemisphere coronal hole now on the western limb.
The STEREO-B spacecraft shows another elongated coronal hole
in the northern solar hemisphere which may rotate to geoeffective
position in three or four days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 21111112
Darwin 3 11111112
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 4 10111113
Camden 3 21111111
Canberra 1 20010001
Hobart 2 11111101
Casey(Ant) 8 33322111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 0100 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jan 4 Quiet
30 Jan 6 Quiet to unsettled
31 Jan 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over the UT day (28
Jan) at mid-latitudes and quieter than yesterday. High latitudes
were Quiet-Unsettled and much reduced from yesterday due to lack
of Bz southward or rapid IMF and solar wind fluctuations. Expect
Quiet for at least the early part of the 29th UT day. Possible
increase in activity late in the UT day or on the 30th as the
effect of the next coronal holes' high-speed solar-wind stream
takes effect. A rise in solar wind speed is already occurring
late on the 28th but as the hole is not apparently very wide
or deep, the geomagnetic disturbance should only be Unsettled-Active.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jan Normal Normal Normal
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal
31 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jan -15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jan -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
30 Jan -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to
10%
31 Jan -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: Intermittent sporadic-E events again observed throughout
the region, often strong blanketing Es that obscured the F-region
(e.g. Brisbane late in the 28th UT day after local sunrise).
MUFs were again depressed at mid and equatorial latitudes,
particularly during the local day.
At mid-latitudes a short post-dusk enhancement
was observed again, more pronounced at northern stations, but
this only took the foF2 to above monthly average levels at a
couple of stations. See Current foF2 plots webpage under
Australiasia-HF Conditions. There were again significant local depressions and
enhancements in the equatorial region, despite the lack of any
geomagnetic activity, although they were more muted than previous
days this week. These are likely caused by high altitude (300km)
thermospheric winds. Continuing Sporadic-E events seem likely.
Expect MUFs to continue below monthly averages due to lack of
sunspot activity for a couple of days. The next coronal hole
should take effect later in the UT day on the 29th or the 30th
and the resultant moderate geomagnetic activity should raise
MUFs closer to predicted monthly averages.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jan
Speed: 372 km/sec Density: 6.4 p/cc Temp: 79700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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