[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 January 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 27 10:41:53 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z JANUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JANUARY - 29 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jan: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jan 28 Jan 29 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remains very low and the solar disk spotless.
A high speed coronal hole wind stream arrived at the ACE satellite
at ~21UT (25 Jan) with an associated Corotating Interaction Region
(CIR). There resulted strong fluctuations in IMF and solar wind
from then till about 10UT 26 Jan. Solar wind increased sharply
at ~23UT 25 Jan to 380km/sec but then slowly decreased to ~340km/sec
by 12UT 26 Jan. At 10UT IMF Bz turned southward and was sustained
till 17UT. The expected recurrent coronal hole is in a geoeffective
position but appears weak in SOHO EIT 195 imagery and as solar
wind velocities at ACE are averge at 340km/sec, the effect of
this coronal hole may be low.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jan: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 26 Jan : A K
Australian Region 14 33433322
Darwin 14 33433322
Townsville 15 33433323
Learmonth 16 33434322
Camden 16 24434321
Canberra 10 23323311
Hobart 13 23424311
Casey(Ant) 21 35533322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 0002
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jan 6 Quiet
28 Jan 6 Quiet
29 Jan 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet-Unsettled over
the UT day (26 Jan) at mid-latitudes with occasional Active periods,
probabaly caused by the arrival of a CIR/coronal hole late on
25 Jan. High latitudes had occasional Minor Storm
periods again mostly due to disturbed IMF and solar wind from
the CIR, with a small contribution at auroral and sub-auroral
latitudes from the extended IMF Bz southwards 10-17UT, although
this did not appear to affect the polar cap. Expect Unsettled
to Quiet for the next three days as effects of the CIR pass through
the magnetosphere, but as the recurrent coronal hole appears
weak and unlikely to cause high solar wind speeds, major disturbances
are unlikely.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jan Fair-normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jan Normal Normal Normal
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal
29 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jan -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jan -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
28 Jan -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
29 Jan -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Intermittent sporadic-E events again observed throughout
the region, often strong blanketing Es that obscured the F-region.
MUFs were mildly depressed in all latitudes, particularly during
the local day. At mid-latitudes a mild post-dusk enhancement
was observed at most stations. There were more significant local
depressions and enhancements during in the equatorial region,
despite the lack of strong geomagnetic activity. These are likely
caused by high altitude (300km) thermospheric winds. The IMF/solar
wind and resultant moderate geomagnetic activity appears to have
raised F2 region ionisation slightly above the previous days.
Continuing Sporadic-E events seem likely from Equatorial to S.Aus/NZ
regions. Expect MUFs to continue below monthly averages due to
lack of sunspot activity although the mild geomagnetic activity
from the CIR/coronal hole may slightly alleviate this for a day
or two.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.80E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jan
Speed: 285 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 28800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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