[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 January 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 26 10:54:07 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z JANUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JANUARY - 28 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jan: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jan 27 Jan 28 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remains very low and the solar disk spotless.
A high speed coronal hole wind stream arrived at the ACE satellite
at ~21UT (25 Jan) with an associated Corotating Interaction Region
(CIR). Expect large fluctuations in IMF parameters in the early
part of 26 Jan with an increasing solar wind speed.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 11111113
Darwin 6 21102114
Townsville 8 22222223
Learmonth 5 21112113
Camden 4 11101123
Canberra 3 01001113
Hobart 3 11101103
Casey(Ant) 7 13321112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 1000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jan 10 Unsettled
27 Jan 6 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Jan 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over the UT day (25
Jan), until a sudden impulse at ~2230UT corresponding to the
arrival of a CIR/coronol hole wind stream. Expect mostly Unsettled
conditions 26 Jan, returning to Quiet levels by 28 Jan. Isolated
Active periods possible 26-27 Jan, particularly at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
27 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jan -12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jan -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
27 Jan -20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
28 Jan -20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Intermittent sporadic-E events again observed throughout
the region. MUFs were mildly depressed in all regions, particularly
during the local day. There were some significant local depressions
during the day in the equatorial region. Continuing Sporadic-E
events likely from Equatorial to S.Aus/NZ regions. Expect variable
HF conditions and continuing MUF depressions 26 Jan.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jan
Speed: 311 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 20900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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