[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 January 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 25 10:39:58 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z JANUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JANUARY - 27 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jan: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jan 26 Jan 27 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remains very low, expected to continue.
Solar wind speeds dropped below 300km/s while the IMF remained
relatively stable over the day. Solar wind conditions expected
to remain mostly quiet next 2 days (25-26 Jan) before an expected
coronal hole high speed wind stream on 27 Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Jan : A K
Australian Region 2 11100112
Darwin 3 01100013
Townsville 6 22212222
Learmonth 3 11000113
Camden 1 11100011
Canberra 0 00000001
Hobart 1 11000101
Casey(Ant) 6 23211122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jan 2 Quiet
26 Jan 2 Quiet
27 Jan 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet at all latitudes over
the UT day (24 Jan), expected to continue next 2 days (25-26
Jan). A coronal hole wind stream is expected to increase geomagnetic
activity to Unsettled levels on 27 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jan Normal Normal Normal
26 Jan Normal Normal Normal
27 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jan -23
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jan -20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
26 Jan -20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
27 Jan -20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Intermittent sporadic-E events again observed throughout
the region. MUFs were depressed in all regions, particularly
during the local day. There were some significant local depressions
during the day in the equatorial region. Continuing Sporadic-E
events likely from Equatorial to S.Aus/NZ regions. Expect continuing
MUF depressions 25-26 Jan.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jan
Speed: 316 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 15800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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