[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 January 09

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z JANUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JANUARY - 18 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jan:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Jan             17 Jan             18 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 15 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   21221222
      Darwin               6   21111223
      Townsville           9   22222332
      Learmonth            8   21121333
      Camden               6   21222222
      Canberra             4   11121221
      Hobart               6   12121132
      Casey(Ant)           9   3-322222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   2212 2102     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Jan     3    Quiet 
17 Jan     3    Quiet 
18 Jan     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions observed with isolated 
unsettled to active periods at high latitudes only. Expect similar 
conditions next three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Jan    -8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Jan   -15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
17 Jan   -15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
18 Jan   -15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
COMMENT: Isolated sporadic-E events observed mainly central-S 
Aus latitudes. Persistent and intense sporadic-E events possible 
from Equatorial to S Aus/NZ regions. Expect continuing variable 
conditions with occasional MUF depressions next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+04   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:N/A
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jan
Speed: 341 km/sec  Density:    6.2 p/cc  Temp:    42400 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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