[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 January 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 15 10:34:02 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z JANUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JANUARY - 17 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jan: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Active region 1010 has continued to decay and is not
likely to produce any significant flares at this time. An
East-directed CME was observed in LASCO C3 imagery, probably
associated with an eruptive North-polar filament. The CME appears
unlikely to be geoeffective. A possible weak shock was observed
in the solar wind at 0015UT on 14 Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 14 Jan : A K
Australian Region 7 32222112
Darwin 7 32222112
Townsville 9 32223222
Learmonth 8 32223122
Camden 6 22222112
Canberra 5 22222012
Hobart 5 22222111
Casey(Ant) 16 44433221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 2 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1110 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jan 3 Quiet
16 Jan 3 Quiet
17 Jan 3 Quiet
COMMENT: A weak impulse in the interplanetary magnetic field
was observed at the ACE satellite platform after 00UT. This was
followed some hours later by a gradual reversal in the phi component
of the IMF. The Bz component of the IMF showed moderate fluctuations
with some sustained periods of negative polarity. Isolated periods
of active geomagnetic conditions were observed at high latitudes.
Conditions declined to quiet later in the UT day and are expected
to remain mostly quiet for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jan Normal Normal Normal
16 Jan Normal Normal Normal
17 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jan -8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jan -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
16 Jan -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
17 Jan -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Generally improved ionospheric conditions observed
Equatorial/N Aus regions. Sporadic-E events observed mainly
central-S Aus latitudes. Persistent and intense sporadic-E
events probable from Equatorial to S Aus/NZ regions. Mild
depressions Antarctic region due to elevated geomagnetic
activity. Expect continuing variable conditions with occasional
MUF depressions next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jan
Speed: 320 km/sec Density: 6.9 p/cc Temp: 30600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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