[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 January 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 17 10:05:49 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z JANUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JANUARY - 19 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jan: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT:
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Jan : A K
Australian Region 7 33222111
Darwin 7 33122111
Townsville 9 33222222
Learmonth 7 33122121
Camden 6 23222110
Canberra 3 22111100
Hobart 4 22211110
Casey(Ant) 11 34322221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1121 0122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jan 3 Quiet
18 Jan 5 Quiet
19 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The mildly unsettled conditions of 15 Jan persisted
for the first few hours of the UT day 16 Jan. Isolated active
periods were seen at high latitudes. Conditions declined to quiet
later in the UT day. Expect mostly quiet conditions days one
and two. A weak recurrent coronal hole wind stream may produce
unsettled periods day three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jan Normal Normal Normal
18 Jan Normal Normal Normal
19 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jan 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jan -5 near predicted monthly values
18 Jan -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
19 Jan -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Variable sporadic-E events observed from Equatorial
to S Ocean regions. Periods of spread-F conditions observed S
Aus and Antarctic regions. Persistent and intense sporadic-E
events possible from Equatorial to S Aus/NZ regions. Expect
continuing variable conditions with occasional MUF depressions
next three days. Disturbances possible Antarctic region day
three due to elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:N/A
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jan
Speed: 352 km/sec Density: 6.6 p/cc Temp: 61900 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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