[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 February 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 23 10:28:33 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z FEBRUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 FEBRUARY - 25 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Feb: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Feb 24 Feb 25 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very
low. Solar wind speed varied between 410 and 490 km/s
during this period and the Bz component of IMF stayed
in the range of +5/-3nT for most part of the UT day.
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels
for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 22222112
Darwin 4 22111012
Townsville 6 22222122
Learmonth 6 22222112
Camden 5 12222012
Canberra 4 121-----
Hobart 5 12222012
Casey(Ant) 9 3--32122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0001 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Feb 4 Quiet
24 Feb 3 Quiet
25 Feb 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained mostly at quiet levels
for the last 24 hours. Almost similar conditions may be expected
for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Feb Fair-normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Feb Normal Normal Normal
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on most locations for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Feb -11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Feb -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
24 Feb -8 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
25 Feb -8 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most parts of Aus/NZ regions for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Feb
Speed: 365 km/sec Density: 9.8 p/cc Temp: 48200 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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